Ethereum: Dubious Speculation | Benjamin Cowen YouTube Video Summary
In this video, Benjamin Cowen provides a technical analysis of Ethereum and its potential path forward, emphasizing the importance of considering the broader crypto market context and Bitcoin's historical performance. Cowen suggests that Ethereum is in a consolidation phase but is likely to tag the 21 week EMA and eventually reach new all-time highs. It is likely Ethereum will need to bleed against alts before liquidity flows back into it.
Detailed Summary:
Ethereum's Path and Future Outlook
Benjamin Cowen performs a technical analysis of Ethereum, suggesting it's currently trading around $4,500 and is at a point where getting the path right is very difficult. He says that, in April of 2024, he expects the path to be successful, meaning it will be up, especially as the riskbands expand.
Key Strategies and Risk Metrics
Cowen emphasizes the importance of not timing the market but instead buying Ethereum when it goes 'home' which would be in April, and sitting on your hands while riding the price action. Additionally, Cowen suggests considering Ethereum's risk metric to identify potentially attractive buying and selling areas. This metric currently sits at a 0.7 level, suggesting the beginning phase of what normally leads into market cycle tops.
Historical Context and Future Projections
Looking at historical data, Bitcoin's major peaks are generally in Q4 of the post-halving year. Cowen expects Eth/BTC to find the final local top when Ethereum makes its next all time high.
Ultimately Cowen's base case is for ETH to be at all time highs a few months in the future, around a price of around $5,000.